The Future of Retail: Data, Influencers, and Dynamic Pricing for Amazon Sellers with Hitha Herzog

The Future of Retail: Data, Influencers, and Dynamic Pricing for Amazon Sellers with Hitha Herzog Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Fearless Sellers podcast. I'm your host, Joie Roberts. We are recording from the Amazon Accelerate podcast studio in Seattle. Today's guest is a powerhouse in the world of retail intelligence. Hitha Herzog, Chief Research Officer at H-Squared Research and one of the most trusted voices in consumer and Amazon trend analysis. She's been breaking down what Amazon sellers need to know right now, straight from the data. From buyer behavior to investable brand signals. Hitha brings the insights that separate top sellers from the rest. If you want to future-proof your Amazon business, this episode is your blueprint. Welcome. Speaker 1: Thank you so much for having me. What an intro. I didn't even know I accomplished all of those things. Wow. You sort of go through life and then someone reads it and you're like, Oh, I did that. Okay. Right. Speaker 2: Yeah. I am paving the way for sellers and we totally appreciate it. Let's go into the cool. Customer behavior. What are the trends that Amazon sellers need to be aware of that are so important right now? Speaker 1: Okay, so I look at everything from a data perspective, right? And just today, US retail sales were reported out, came in at 5% year over year growth. This is way higher than what analysts were expecting at 3.2%. So, what does that mean for the American consumer? That means even though there are worries about tariffs and de minimis and are we going to get our gifts on time for the holiday season, they are still purchasing. And part of the reason why I think is because of this uncertainty about what is going to happen during holiday season in the next couple of months. So we're seeing this flip-flop, whiplash with tariffs. However, the consumer is resilient. Now, what does that mean for Amazon sellers? This really bodes well because it means the consumer is resilient. We are seeing that while Gen Z is a little bit more apprehensive to spend. Gen Z millennials are more apprehensive to spend on their credit cards. Most of the reason why is because, and this is based on after paid data, most of the reason why is because they haven't had a long leeway to save that money, to spend that money, right? A lot of them, I think 47% or maybe more, have only $500 of savings For an emergency Wow, right, but it makes sense because they you know, they came up through a Pandemic they are still trying to get their footing with their work but what is really fueling the spending are the older generation Gen X boomers and the high earners and a lot of that is going on. So for Amazon sellers They all should know, everyone that's listening to this, is that there's a lot of credit card spending, that the consumer feels resilient, and they are getting ready for the holiday as early as you can make it. Speaker 2: Okay, well that is good news for Amazon brands and Amazon sellers. What metrics or what do you think Amazon brands should be looking at right now as we're going into, as you're talking about the holidays? Speaker 1: So, a couple things. I think that Amazon brands should look at credit card spending and really kind of dig into that data because that's really going to indicate where they're going to buy, sell, or hold, right, to take analyst lingo into certainly, you know, I'm assuming most of the sellers have had There are plans ready for a holiday season. For those that do not, right, that's okay. But looking at the credit card data is really important. I also think looking at trends, not just from trend reports that were written, you know, a month or two ago, but really leveraging AI to see where those trends are going. So I know AI can be, you know, a little bit, you know, what's going on? Is it really sending out the right information back to me? You know, my advice is to use a different, you know, a lot of different AIs, you know, Amazon has Rufus, but using that to kind of lean on and help them figure out what the plan is for the next couple months and going into Q1 of 2026. Right. Speaker 2: And this, this is super insightful because As an Amazon seller myself and going into the holiday season, we mostly sit there and focus on Amazon ads and what we're doing to form and where our click rate is. And you're giving us a whole other outlook. Like, hey, actually pay attention to what the entire market of spending is doing. Yes, Amazon is, you know, where people spend a ton of money, but just overall in general, where spending is. And that is a great key to look at credit card spending. That's new to me. Because I'm so in the weeds in my brand going into the holiday. So right off the gate, we just got some eye-opening information. Absolutely love it. So from your research perspective, what difference should these Amazon sellers Who succeeds like long-term success instead of just like super bad? What kind of differentiates a success? Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting. You were talking about how as a seller, you're looking at, you know, ad buys and click-through rates and performance, which is incredibly important. But I think there is an opportunity for sellers to also look at brand and really marrying performance with brand. Like, what are your brand messaging? What is it? What are the ads? Who is it targeting and looking at the ads to see if the creative is the best performing for that particular demographic that you're going to target. One thing I've come to know is true is that All ads are not the same for everyone, right? And if your product is being targeted to a Gen Z audience, well, it's not really gonna resonate with my boomer mom, you know? And even me as a Gen X-er, you know, I may be able to, I feel like I'm a cool Gen X-er, but like, you know, some of the lingo, I'm like, oh, what did you just say? I don't get it. But looking at that performance between varying brand and performance data, But also, and I wanted to kind of add this on to the credit card. In data and looking at that, you want to look at it per demographic and how demographics are spending within those numbers. I would advise sellers to get comfortable with the numbers. I think a lot of us are like, oh, you know, numbers are, I'll give it to my CFO. I'll give it to my bookkeeper. As sellers, you need to get really good at being able to look at the numbers and what does that mean in relation to your business and break it down in easy steps. You know, think about who your demographic is. How are they spending? What are they doing? And look at the trends that they are specifically doing within consumer spending. Speaker 2: That's so interesting. So it's like, where do we look for that? I know I can dig into my Amazon analytics, but I want to get more in the habit of looking at the overall consumer spending. Speaker 1: Well, this is really nerdy and wonky, but the Federal Reserve always comes out with these reports. And I know your listeners are probably like, what are you talking about? This woman is telling us to go to the Federal Reserve website and start downloading reports. Yes, I am. It's very nerdy. I'm telling you to do that right now. But they're written in a way where it's just incredibly informative and they have infographics, you know, for visual learners out there. And it really is a wealth of information. As I was telling you, a lot of the credit card spending, what's really fueling the American economy is that credit card spend from the older demographics. That's a piece of information that is really valuable, I would think, to a seller that is even just getting going, but even maybe targeting an older demographic with more disposable income. Speaker 2: I love that. And that is something It's a little bit surprising because people think, oh, the older generation, are they really out there buying stuff off of Amazon? But I would say yes, like way more than people think. And my dad comes to mind, right? I know he's like, out of that, he's in his 80s. But man, the Amazon trucks are like coming and going from his house all the time and my house. What are some other like surprising insights that Amazon sellers maybe don't know? Speaker 1: I think for Amazon sellers, you know, going again with getting kind of in the weeds with the data, you want to look at how, you want to look at the data and break it down, not just from generations, right? Boomers versus Gen X versus Gen Z, but you also want to look at your data via geographic demographics. So how are those those generations or those groups of people standing within the demographic or in the geographic location that you are selling at? And I think For sellers, it might be really surprising. I'm going to give you an example. There is, you know, I think, let's just say there is an Amazon seller that sells like really cool, like 80s nostalgia, punk paraphernalia. I'm making this up. I'm a huge fan of everything. Any Manchester, you know, music scene, 1980s, send it my way. So that's sort of top of mind. You have a seller on Amazon and my data, I haven't seen this, but I'm just giving you an example, that seller may think that, oh, well, you know, my customers are in these urban areas. They are older, they have money, but there is a whole wave of nostalgia that is happening right now and younger, I don't want to, you know, The kids, right, the Gen Z's, are really into looking at these older men that, you know, I'm going to be honest, dating everybody I grew up with, and that could be a surprising data point. And these kids may not be in urban city centers. They may be in rural areas like Albuquerque, New Mexico, which is where I'm from. So I think that that is Sellers should look at, and I think they do it anyway, just based on the analytics that Amazon is able to give you all, but really kind of digging down and zeroing in on that. I think a really good piece of advice that a professor of mine gave to me 20 years ago, he said, you have to get really specific and narrow. Go very specific and very, I'm sorry, very narrow and very deep. And the data that you are looking at and the expertise that you have. And I think with sellers, communities are getting more and more specific. And you being able to use that data to really zero in on the community and be that thing for the community is going to be really great for sellers on Amazon. Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. Like niching down, getting your messaging right and your product. One of the products I sell is actually a hormone cream. I thought it was going to be for women struggling with fertility. Well, it turned out the women with menopause wanted it. So I had to rebrand, do all of my messaging and make sure that I was targeting. I can still have three more infertility, fertility, but I was like, okay, now let's actually do the pain points and have to learn a whole nother area, but it would have been really good if I had dug into it and studied that, and I didn't do that, so now I can pile that on. Speaker 1: It's interesting. Oh, and that's a whole other thing. I mean, the whole sort of conversation around menopause and perimenopause, and I mean, that's a whole other podcast episode that I'm having. Yeah, let it do it. Speaker 2: Let's do it. Speaker 1: Please. Speaker 2: So we were just talking about younger generations and what popped into my head was influencers and we can call it social commerce but really I am influenced by influencers and spending. How have you seen that with Amazon? Speaker 1: Influencers are as much as everyone wants to say, oh, it's going away. Oh, they're really not going to have any sort of impact on anything we are doing. That's actually not true. Influencers have a lot of influence and especially With these younger generations that are always on social media and getting informed on what to buy, what to wear, seeing the people that they follow wear things. Someone asked me the other day, when was the last time I walked into a mall to go buy something? And the answer is, I truly have no idea. I live in New York City. I guess if you look at Time Warner Center, that's considered a mall. I mean, it is a mall, right? But Whole Foods happens to be in there and that's our grocery store. So I guess I go into the mall to go grocery shopping, but I haven't bought clothes in a mall in a very long time. So my point is, you know, if you're Instagram shopping and you're seeing an influencer wear that, and I'm part of an older demographic, that's still very important. You know, people are seeing their influencers wear what they have. We're making notes, creating Pinterest boards on it. For Amazon sellers, this is a real opportunity, again, to see influencer trends, see where they fit into that. We were talking about your product and how you were surprised to see this sort of rise of perimenopausal women that want this hormone cream. This conversation about that has been happening for a while and for you it would probably be helpful to see that data and see what the trend is going into 2026, 2027, 2028. Because it's not going away. Speaker 2: It is not. Speaker 1: And you're seeing, I'm trying to think of the Sort of older women, Tamsin Fadal, who talks about this a lot, or Naomi Watts is an actress and she talks about this often. I mean, they're not officially influencers, but they are, I mean, I guess Tamsin is, but these are women that are pushing product forward that's specific to you. So I can only imagine with these influencers and, of course, rise of other influencers on platforms that are not Amazon, putting out content. Like TikTok, you know, that's just creating a flywheel for those Amazon sellers. Speaker 2: And for us Amazon sellers, that's easy because then it's outside traffic where we can get stuff on Pinterest, put our boards together. And if you listeners, if you have not put together your business Pinterest profile, please go do it. Get your products up there. Start doing some boards because that's just free organic traffic that Amazon's going to reward you for and help lower your A costs. I don't work for Pinterest. I'm just plugging that in there that it is one of my favorite outside traffic ones and you brought it up. Thank you. Speaking of people shopping and buying from the influencers at the younger generation, you mentioned that they are price conscious because they don't have their big savings. Since like the older people do. So let's talk about pricing a little bit. What do you think with discounts and deals? How is pricing playing a role? Speaker 1: You know, with pricing and especially with sellers and products, I think there is a way, you know, Amazon has really been the platform and kind of focused in on dynamic pricing. You see that often. As someone who has covered Amazon and analyzed Amazon from, you know, my perspective, you see this dynamic pricing change from, you know, Almost in terms of, you know, in some cases, like minute to minute, right? Depending on what sellers product they have, you know, that's available, what's not, what's in high demand, what's not. I think pricing really comes down to, again, sellers need to have a very good idea of how much inventory they have. What it's going to cost to logistically get that inventory to the different places that they are selling. Are they shipping globally? Are they shipping, are they keeping it local? Who's fulfilling all of that? And then all of those factors all determine what that pricing is, right? You know, should you discount? Should you not? It's interesting with the younger demographic, like I said, according to Afterpay, that Gen Z customer is not really focusing in on... They're a little apprehensive to spend on their cars, right? But what they want to do is get a deal. And you're seeing this sort of rise of like, how can I find the best discount? But at the same time, for Amazon sellers, there's a lot more that's happening to that dynamic pricing and figuring out that pricing. This is where I think that sellers need to really embrace AI. I think there is, you know, sort of a movement of AI has gotten so powerful and in ways that are so helpful for small businesses. I have my own stack. I have a stack of AI that is just informing me everything from family stuff to business stuff. And I would advise sellers to create that AI stack or figure out AI and really practice prompting to really have them help the sellers help them with how their dynamic pricing works for them. Because it's different for each seller. I would love to give you a general answer, but I think that for each seller, It really depends on inventory. Are they shipping from England back to the United States? I mean, there's a de minimis situation happening, right? Are they shipping from the United States out to different parts of the globe? How much are you going to charge the customer for that extra tax or for that extra shipping? Speaker 2: So much. Speaker 1: I'm part of an Amazon seller purchase but I was on a luxury website looking for a pair of shoes because I was going on vacation with my family to Spain and I saw these shoes and I'm like, oh great, they're $150. Isabel Marant. I love it. Let's buy them. And they were shipping out of Canada. I waited a day. I waited a day and I went back and I thought, oh my gosh, they went up to $335. So that is something for sellers to be aware of too. There's a whiplash effect going on with tariffs. So that's going to factor in. I think the simple answer or I guess the best answer is to figure out what your AI stack is and how that can really, how you can leverage that to help you move your business forward. Speaker 2: I love it. And I have ChatGPT live right now and they're letting you put in project folders. So, it memorizes everything and it's all in there so I can go back and look and I do have my pricing strategies that I'm doing for the holidays in there. I can keep going in there and asking more questions and what I see better inside. So, I think that's great, great, great advice. Speaker 1: And as AI gets more sophisticated, it can start pulling Dynamic global changes, right, that could potentially impact your business as well. And what I'm talking about is, you know, any sort of mention of a tariff, you know, on a, I don't want to get too in the weeds of tariffs, but I know it has an impact on small business, you know, especially with the minimists. And, you know, that, that as AI gets more sophisticated, it's going to start taking that into consideration. So I could only imagine that would be incredibly helpful for smaller businesses. And, you know, we were talking before we started recording this podcast, but I did a lot of research on rural small businesses. Who leveraged the Amazon platform to sell their products. Speaker 2: Yeah. Speaker 1: And as I mentioned, I'm from New Mexico and we were looking at this hatch. I'm a chili farmer that was selling their hatch chili on Amazon's platform and it changed their lives. It is such a specific product to New Mexico and to be able to get that out to the rest of the world. We're here in Seattle right now. They're the chucker cherries that sell on Amazon platform that also can go out to everywhere in the world. It's really interesting to see, especially We have micro businesses, smaller businesses that are really in rural areas that were relying on brick and mortar to now be able to have customers all over the world. Speaker 2: I know. You don't have to have that brick and mortar. You have your one store and then you get your Amazon storefront and it literally can go global. Don't go global right away. Speaker 1: Don't do it. Speaker 2: Build where you're at. Speaker 1: The tsunami is coming. You got to be prepared for it. Speaker 2: So yes, build where you're at, but it is really changed. The playing field for everybody. Everybody can sell. Everybody can have a storefront. And while we're on that topic of storefront, let's talk about just some missed opportunities, right? That when you're analyzing Amazon storefronts and listings, what Amazon sellers might be missing. You've already told us some really great things to get us thinking a little bit outside of our little bubble. Speaker 1: So what I've seen and conversations I've had with companies, gosh, there's this company that I'm dying to tell you all about, but I think they're still in stealth mode and they're launching October 7th. So come back and we'll have to talk about this company. But I was having a conversation with these two co-founders who happen to be my friends and they were saying that for marketing, There is the brand and then there's performance, and I think I mentioned this earlier too, but I think you're really seeing those two silos perform very differently. Brand has its own metrics to hit and performance has its own metrics to hit, but there's no ability to marry the two and say, well, this creative is It's not performing well, even though performance is, and the metrics over here are saying it's doing okay. And sellers, especially small business, are not being able to capitalize on that efficiently. So I think, and again, not to be the evangelist for AI, but AI is really great in the sense that it democratizes It's something like being able to marry brand and performance, put them together so you can go out and test ads, see what works and doesn't for a very, pretty much nothing. And you're not wasting, you know, $10,000 creating this incredible grade of it. It doesn't work. And you're like, great, I'm out $10,000. AI really has that ability to do that now. And that is what is going to be a game changer for sellers, for small businesses. Speaker 2: Yes. That's a really good point. And I feel that burden too because I have spent thousands of dollars on ads and branding and video. And it's so much easier now with AI. And I've been building brands. I've bought and sold. I've built and sold brands and it was so hard building my first brand from zero to a million without AI. I'm like, how did I do that? I was amazing. I should be crushing it even more now. Speaker 1: The question was, where am I seeing the gaps with sellers and where are they missing the mark? I think that is where they could really amp up their businesses, being able to have that arc, could make that connection. And it's becoming easier and easier and less expensive. You don't need a $15,000 budget to do this anymore. You don't need a $100 budget anymore. You could just do it, see what works, and then keep doing it over and over again. And then that's what's gonna really amp up that business and get your product into more hands and on more eyeballs and hopefully. Speaker 2: And you'll figure out trends for your products too. And you can do it way less expensive. So often, sellers have to rely on trends to get their products. You know, you don't want to guess, like, oh, I think red is going to win, right? You want to know the trend. So what's your advice for spotting sustainable trend versus short-term facts? Speaker 1: Research reports. I know that sounds, again, so wonky. I apologize to all of you all who are watching this. But I think the most important thing is to, you know, there are so many insights about trend reports and trend forecasting. And I think The earlier you start, the better. A lot of these forecasters that you will go out and see, let's say you see a trend report for the holiday, that was written in March and it's coming out now. That's not very effective for you now. Donna Gertobi is one insight that you can either buy into their newsletter as a monthly fee or I think they have free material that you can look at. Donna Gertobi is really great in the sense that it tells you the trends almost two years prior to what is happening. A great example is Fish Life, the tinned fish company. When I was working with Donna Gertobi, I was sitting with their team and this incredible Leslie Geisz is one of the executives over there. We're having this call, this sort of brain sort of trust, and her team was saying that Tin Fish, and this was like It's 2022, 2023, right? It's going to be the hottest thing. And I said, yeah, that's cool. Tin fish. I'm going to, you know, and, uh, you know, people that I don't, I don't really, I'm specific about eating, you know, like to try new things. I'm like, that's interesting. Tin fish. Okay. The hottest thing right now. And they just nailed it. And, and they, they are very good at being able to see things three years in advance. And that is, um, I think sellers, You need to get really good at getting into the weeds with those reports, even if it's one or two. And I'm going to give you another piece of advice too. Business owners don't read enough of the business news. Speaker 2: 100% agree, including myself. Speaker 1: If you are a fashion seller, read Women's Wear Daily, read Business of Fashion, read the insights from those companies, read Forbes, read Wall Street Journal, read the business section of the New York Times. Print is not dead. News is not dead. You have to, and I teach at Parsons in New York City in the fashion management program, and I tell my students, you can't be budding executives. And to be in this class without reading the newspaper. And so I think before anyone does anything else, get your news together and read it and read it every single day. Like you go out and exercise or you brush your teeth. It should be a part of your everyday plan. As a business owner, you have to. Speaker 2: Yeah. And we're all reading the other stuff on social media and the crazy headlines. Read for your business. I love that tip. You have some amazing knowledge on the podcast. It is such a delight. A couple more things before we go. For the rest of 2025, and I know we're going to go into 2026, what's just like something you can give sellers who just need a little bit of hope with maybe some uneasiness in the economy right now? Speaker 1: I can tell sellers this. Just looking at the retail numbers, and granted we have a couple more months to go towards the end of 2025, but it looks like the consumer is very confident. They want to go out and purchase. They are very excited about going out and purchasing. We just saw the news from Amazon that the big deal. Speaker 2: Yeah. Prime big deal day. Speaker 1: Prime big deal days. Speaker 2: Yes. Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Prime big deal days is happening October 7th and 8th. And I mean, that's coming up very soon. So that's something that sellers can really take advantage of. And all the data is pointing to the fact that the consumer wants to do this early. You know, we call it in our industry, the Christmas tree. That doesn't mean the guests, the house guests won't leave, you know, after December 25th when everyone needs to go home. That's called promotions that are starting early and early. And sellers, everyone knows this, but this is now happening at the beginning of October. So that's one thing that sellers can be really excited about. Yes, younger generations are a little bit more apprehensive to spend, but older generations are excited to spend. Speaker 2: And it's happening earlier and earlier. Speaker 1: So the sooner that they can get their product out there, the better that it's going to be for them. Speaker 2: Yes, and you want your products to show up. Well, Hitha, this has been so insightful. Do people want to follow you or want to know what you're up to? Speaker 1: Sure. Yes. You can follow me. I'm on X. I think I always call it Twitter, but it's X. You can always find me on Instagram at Hitha Herzog. I have a book called Black Market Billions that was published a while ago, but it's all about organized retail crime. How all the money trail of these two handbags that were stolen and how that funded a listing. So if you want to check that out. Speaker 2: Okay. I am definitely going to be reading that. I'll put that in our show notes as well. Unknown Speaker: Thank you. Speaker 2: Well, until next time, stay fearless.